More Rwandans vs strong insurgents

Rwandan troops control the gas zone – Palma district and the northern two-thirds of Mocimboa da Praia district, plus the graphite mines in Ancuabe, and have just arrived in Macomia town.  Tanzanians control Nangade district. (see map)

From north to south, Insurgents control the very dense forests along the Messalo river that is the border between Mocimboa da Praia, the coastal zone of Macomia district, and some area going west toward Ancuabe. Insurgents also have small bases in the south of Cabo Delgado, not on the map.

Macomia occupation

The 10-12 May occupation of Macomia town is seen as at the same level at the occupations of Quissanga (2020), Mocimboa da Praia (2020), and Palma (2021). Focus Group is normally subscription only but it has allowed us to post its excellent detailed report on https://bit.ly/Moz-Focus-Macomia.

Focus Group says “the assault on Macomia town was well-coordinated, with the insurgents well armed and evidently having knowledge regarding the movement of the security forces.”

Insurgents were reported in the area before the attack. Macomia is on a crossroads. Following the pattern of the previous town attacks, four groups attacked from the four different directions early in the morning of 10 May. They controlled the town by noon.
Government forces called for help and South African forces were sent from the south and Rwandans from the north. Both were ambushed by insurgent forces waiting for them. Focus Group says that in retrospect, the very public movement of insurgents forces to the south and into Nampula in April was explicitly a diversion. The ability to carry out a string of small attacks as a diversion “indicated a higher levels of strategy and command and control.”

Insurgents left Macomia of their own accord, with stolen trucks and large quantities of food, on 12 May.

Hearts and Minds

“The insurgency has evolved within the conflict zone and adapted its strategies to react to the increasing military deployment.” Focus Group notes. “From tactics that caused a high number of civilian casualties, the insurgency has adjusted its strategy to one in which it increasingly targets the security forces and those deemed the insurgency’s “enemies”.

Focus Group says in late 2020 insurgent leaders went to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to meet with members of the Islamic State, who emphasised the need to avoid indiscriminately killing of civilians and the need to build popular support. This has led to a hearts and minds campaign.

And Focus Group warns that counterinsurgency on its own cannot win, because of a “lack of socioeconomic development”. There must be economic measures to “uplift the impoverished population and, in turn, demotivate support for the insurgency.”

Misconduct by Mozambican soldiers continue to cause problems. In June, the riot police (Rapid Intervention Unit), which is used for military duties, was accused of extorting and arbitrarily detaining civilians. Soldiers killed a market trader after curfew on 8 July. The next morning there was a riot against the army with between two and five soldiers killed.

In Chiúre district, locals have accused the local militia of extorting the population by charging up to 50 meticais ($1) to use the roads, ZumboFM reported. People in Macomia also continue to complain about abusive behaviour by the Mozambican army. Many live in fear of extortion, arbitrary arrest and sexual violence, one source claimed. (Cabo Ligado 11 June)

Other fighting and movements

Posting the new Rwandan troops in Macomia town indicates they are expected to attack eastward in Macomia district. Insurgent force movements have been noted in the Catupa forest along the Messalo River going west through Chai, with others west toward Ancuabe and south through Metuge. So the insurgents seem to want to keep some of their forces out of harm’s way.

Other insurgent activity has been in the south of Mocimboa da Praia district near the town, and on the road north to Palma. A large attack failed on 29 May on Mbau with at least a dozen and up to 50 insurgents killed.

Insurgents have returned to Nangade district. And there have been incidents in Muidumbe district between the insurgent zone and Mueda. The N380 road north through Macomia always has armed convoys but has been sporadically closed by soldiers.

No gas until 2029

Although some groundwork is going on in Afungi, it is clear there will be no formal start until next year and no production unit 2029. TotalEnergies order of 17 LNG ships has been delayed form 2028 until 2029, the South Korean shipyards of Hyundai and Samsung reported. Meanwhile the US ExIm bank has had to suspend its funding decisions until after the US elections, which also means delays.

Rwandan security firm for Afungi

Isco Segurança, a company majority owned by Rwanda’s ruling party, has been providing security services and unarmed protection at TotalEnergies’ project site since December 2022. Isco Mozambique is 70% owned by Isco Global, a company ultimately controlled by the Rwandan Patriotic Front, and 30% by prominent Pemba businessman Assif Osman. Isco now has 495 guards on site. (Zitamar 26 July)