In this issue
+ IMF demands austerity and devaluation
+ Cabo Delgado war intensifies
+ No agreement yet on gas resumption
+ Archbishop blames Frelimo for land seizure
+ National Dialogue began today
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IMF demands austerity and devaluation
There will be no IMF agreement or loans this year, said the IMF team which visited Mozambique 21-29 August. It simply said negotiations “will continue in the coming months”. And it set harsh conditions including “decisive action to restore macroeconomic stability”, which in IMF jargon means harsh austerity imposed quickly.
The IMF team said the “fiscal deficit”, that is expenditure in excess of income, was 2.4% of GDP in the first half of 2025. It said this is because “government expenditures continue to grow at a faster pace” than income, as well as due to low tax revenue.
The IMF also demands devaluation. The exchange rate has been fixed for several years at MT64=$1, when the real rate should be at least MT90=$1. This makes imports cheap. Mozambique imported $441mn of rice last year, which could have been produced locally. But the low exchange rate means imported rice is cheaper than locally produced rice. Similarly the Maputo middle class consumes imported goods, many imported by thousands of “mukheristas”, informal importers who go mainly to South Africa but also as far away as Brazil, and who pay officials to avoid paying import taxes. The middle class drives imported Japanese second hand cars, which would be unaffordable for many at the higher exchange rate and with honest customs officials.
At a middle level salaries are rising because Frelimo controls the civil service and pushed through a salary scale that gives higher salaries and allowances to senior civil servants. Illegal trade, from the mukheristas to unlicenced minibus drivers to hardwood timber traders, operate through Frelimo recognised networks of people taking bribes. Jobs and government contracts require commissions and party contacts.
The demands of the IMF cannot be met just by squeezing the poor. One priority of the new government is to meet the demands from within Frelimo’s local and national elite, which increases in size with each election as more people want to join the Frelimo gravy train. The government’s priority is exactly what the IMF says Mozambique cannot do.
Cabo Delgado war intensifies
Seven people were killed when insurgents attacked Filipe Nyusi (30 de Junho) neighbourhood in Mocimboa da Praia town Sunday night (7 September). This is the first attack in the district capital since insurgents were expelled by Rwandan forces in 2021. (Zumbo FM 8 Sept, AIM 10 Sept, MediaFax 10 Sept, Focus Group 10 Sept).
Insurgents went to two specific houses and called out the victims by name, and killed them. Two are said to be police. The attack was confirmed by district administrator Sergio Cipriano, who said the attack reawakened feelings of terror, panic and fear.
Initially the town had been seen as secure and the port and air strip were rebuilt and Mocimboa da Praia, to the south of the Afungi gas project zone, and Palma town, north of Afungi, were seen as transport and contractor bases for the project. The Rwandans said they could keep insurgents out of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia districts. But they failed, and there have been regular attacks, this time inside the district capital. Recently gas company TotalEnergies said it would only resume gas development if it turned the Afungi zone into a fortress with no land access.
Insurgents have free movement in large areas of Cabo Delgado and the war has intensified during the past two months, with little response from government forces. The map from Focus Group shows insurgent activity in the single week to 3 September, with red the most intense insurgent presence. Only the six light green districts had no insurgent action in that week.
Focus Group, Weekly Media Review
Mozambique 573, 27 August to 3 September 2025
Borges Nhamirre, a research consultant at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, told a 25 August ISS seminar that training and leadership changes of the army and police are not making any difference, and corruption and violence against civilians continue. His view is that the insurgents “will not be defeated in the next 10 years”.
No agreement yet on gas resumption
Despite repeated promises that work would resume “soon” on the Cabo Delgado gas, little is happening. Offshore Area 1 is shared by consortia headed by the French TotalEnergies and the US ExxonMobil. The $20 billion base to convert gas to liquified national gas (LNG) was being built onshore on the Afungi peninsula just south of Palma, but work stopped after insurgents captured Palma in 2021. TotalEnergies is moving first, and ExxonMobil says it will start a year after TotalEnergies restarts. TotalEnergies says it will restart once it converts the site into a fortress with no land access. All people and supplies must arrive by air or sea.
The reason for the present delay is unclear, but it seems that TotalEnergies has not yet come to an agreement with Frelimo and the Mozambique government. Before the 2021 Palma occupation, gas contractors and staff were based in Palma town which had become a boom town. Total Energies says all staff and contractor teams must be based inside the fortress. From Frelimo oligarchs down to Palma service, hotel and restaurant operators there is a fear that they are being shut out of the project, reducing local income and jobs.
Local businesses in Palma announced a strike starting today (Wednesday 10 September). Maxime Rabiloud, the Managing Director in Mozambique of TotalEnergies, on Saturday (6 September) met business owners from Palma district. “I want to make it clear there is no intention of reducing purchases from local businesses,” he said. Although there is no official restart, there are 2000 workers already on site preparing the fortress and LNG base. Rabilloud stressed that much of the food for those 2,000 workers in Afungi is already purchased in Palma, both from agricultural producers and other local suppliers.
But equally important Total Energies on 1 September signed an agreement to give the Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN) $10mn for development initiatives in Palma and Mocimboa da Praia districts. ADIN is tightly controlled by senior Frelimo people in Maputo, who will see the $10mn as a way to appease the Cabo Delgado oligarchs.
Archbishop blames Frelimo for land seizure
Archbishop Inacio Saure of Nampula gave a press conference on 3 September denouncing the illegal occupation of Catholic church land. The land was occupied during the protests early this year. Courts on 16 May and 12 August ordered the squatters to leave, but local government did nothing. Archbishop Saure said: “Officials who were sent there were chased away. This arrogance leads us to believe that there is a powerful and invisible hand” behind the invasions, guaranteeing impunity for the occupiers.
He believes that the land seizure may be retaliation for the bishops speaking out over electoral fraud and other issues. Saure met with Nampula governor Eduardo Mariano Abdula who did nothing. This was probably because Saure had earlier forced Abdula to publicly apologise for the provincial head of the veterans association saying “Frelimo will govern until Jesus Christ returns to Earth.”
Dom Inacio Saure concluded “We have lawyers, we have documents, but the law does not work when it comes up against powerful people.” (Jornal Ngani, 8 Sept; Vatican News 4 Sept)
National Dialogue began today
Mozambique’s “Inclusive National Dialogue” was launched this morning, Wednesday 10 September, by President Daniel Chapo. Proposed by Chapo in March in response to the demonstrations, the Dialogue was approved by parliament on 2 April.
The Dialogue reports to Chapo and is controlled by him. Chapo announced the 10 September start in his speech at a rally in Katembe, Maputo city, on 30 August. On 7 May Chapo announced that Edson Macuacua would be head of the commission, and he named the 17 commission members from various political parties, and various other posts. The full list of members and officials is on https://mznews.co.mz/en/edson-macuacua-lidera-a-comissao-tecnica-para-dialogo-nacional-inclusivo/. Macuacua is state secretary of scinece and higher education, and has been used in the past by government as a political fixer.
On Monday,1 September, the commission selected academics Jose Jaime Macuane and Eduardo Chiziane as consultants. Macuane is a political scientist with extensive experience in Public Administration reforms and a professor at Eduardo Mondlane University. In 2016 he was a known public commenter, particular on STV’s “Pontos de Vista” programme where he heavily criticised President Nyusi. He was beaten and shot on the morning of 23 May 2016 and dumped in Maputo’s Marracuene district. He was treated in the UK and returned to Mozambique. The attackers were never identified. Chiziane heads the Faculty of Law at Eduardo Mondlane and has also been a critic of government.
The dialogue will have ten working groups: constitutional, electoral, fiscal, economic, public administration and depoliticization, natural resources, defence and security, justice, reconciliation and national unity, and decentralization and de-concentration. Each working group will present recommendations. Each group will be composed of ten individuals.
Macuacua explained that the first stage will be a three-month national and diaspora public consultation, “interacting with civil society, political parties, academia, and all social strata”. The second stage will develop proposals to submit to a national public debate. The third phase aims to “build consensus and develop proposals for agreements”, to be transformed “into legislative initiatives” for submission to parliament.
It seems a very formal, long and cumbersome process to try to keep civil society and the opposition talking until it is too late to change laws before the next elections, in 2028 and 2029. Frelimo has a majority in parliament, and President Chapo can veto legislation. In 2023-24 the parties had an extended discussion which led to agreement on electoral law changes which were passed by parliament in 2024, but then President Nyusi vetoed the law at the last minute, and elections were held under the old law.
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