Amid rising concern about potential industrial disruption when South Africa’s natural gas supply from Mozambique runs out, coupled with awareness of the need to introduce stable baseload energy as coal-fired plants are decommissioned, experts agree that a far more coordinated effort is required to develop gas import infrastructure and gas-to-power capacity in the country.
Against this backdrop, there is broad consensus that South Africa will inevitably need liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to replace pipeline natural gas. However, infrastructure delays, slow procurement processes, regulatory uncertainty and legal challenges are significant bottlenecks.
At the same time, although gas-to-power is supported from a policy perspective, the gas sector has reached a critical inflection point, with key decisions now needed to secure both short- and long-term supply.
South Africa’s gas sector has historically been small but strategically important, with the existing 865 km Republic of Mozambique Pipeline Investments Company (Rompco) pipeline from Mozambique having supplied natural gas from the Pande-Temane gas fields to Sasol and, by extension, to 300 large-scale industrial users since 2004.
Currently, gas demand stands at about 185 PJ a year, with industrial users paying between $7/MBtu and $8/MBtu. However, a shift to imported gas would require regasification infrastructure and various mid-merit projects, which would increase costs significantly, with prices likely rising by between 40% and 50%.
South Africa’s gas developers are currently guided by the draft Gas Master Plan of 2024, which is yet to be finalised; the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP); and the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025.
The IRP 2025 targets 6 000 MW of new gas-to-power capacity by 2030 and aims to raise the minimum load factor for gas plants to 50%. Over the longer term, it targets 16 000 MW of new gas-to-power capacity by 2039. In parallel, the IEP positions natural gas as a critical transition fuel, aiming to diversify energy sources and replace ageing coal plants by 2050.
While the IEP serves as a broad, high- level framework across all energy sectors, the IRP operates as a subset of the IEP, focusing specifically on electricity demand and supply. In this sense, the IEP sets the overarching strategy, while the IRP provides a detailed capacity expansion roadmap. Complementing these, the Gas Master Plan outlines the infrastructure, demand nodes and investment needed to diversify gas supply from local and international markets.
South Africa’s gas developments have been primarily driven by a request for proposals (RFP) issued by the then Department of Mineral Resources and Energy in December 2023 to procure 2 000 MW under the Gas Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (GASIPPPP) Bid Window 1.
The RFP has since been amended following extensive engagement with prospective bidders. The revisions address key concerns raised during the clarification process and aim to refine the procurement process with greater clarity and risk mitigation for bidders. The bid submission deadline was extended from October 31, 2025, with March 30 set as the last date for bidders to submit written questions and May 29 as the revised bid submission date.
Importantly, the RFP is contingent on an LNG import terminal in Richards Bay, which is being developed by Vopak South Africa and Transnet National Ports Authority in a joint venture (JV) called Zululand Energy Terminal (ZET). However, a final investment decision on the terminal has been postponed pending clarity on Eskom’s planned 3 000 MW gas-to-power project in Richards Bay.
That project was halted by the Supreme Court of Appeal in September 2025 owing to public consultation issues related to its environmental authorisation.
Although the project now requires a new environmental authorisation process, Eskom remains committed to its strategic gas programme, while Vopak South Africa and Transnet signed a new memorandum of understanding in March, committing to advance gas development in KwaZulu-Natal.
Eskom says gas serves as the backbone for renewable-energy integration, given its flexibility and fast-response capability. As more renewables come online, dispatchable generation will be needed to offset their variability, ensuring energy security and sustaining the gains of Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan.
Eskom strategic delivery group executive Alfred Seema views gas as the quickest and most effective solution for backup and load- following capacity.
Alternative Supply
As an alternative or complement to the ZET, Rompco has been exploring the possibility of connecting LNG from Mozambique’s Matola terminal, which is being developed by Beluluane Gas Company – a JV between South African energy company Gigajoule and French energy major TotalEnergies.
The Matola terminal is planned to have floating storage and a regasification unit that can receive LNG shipments from various sources and supply a gas-to-power plant to be built at the Beluluane Industrial Complex. A portion of this supply could also be transported to South Africa through the Rompco pipeline.
In addition, while Sasol has made a gas discovery at the Bonito-1 exploration well in Mozambique, near the existing Pande-Temane fields, the discovery is in its early stages and will likely take five to eight years before it can contribute to gas supply.
At the same time, 22 industrial gas users across the glass, metals, food manufacturing, mining and chemicals sectors, organised under a formally launched aggregator called GasHub, have also been investigating alternative sources of supply to avert a gas cliff. GasHub chairperson Thomas Shaw believes LNG imports will be needed to meet demand in South Africa.
Industrial Gas Users Association-South Africa executive officer Jaco Human agrees that aggregation could support a less fragmented and more equitable gas market. However, he notes that partnership with government remains essential to develop the fiscal solutions needed for LNG storage and regasification infrastructure.
The organisation is seeking to leverage members’ combined purchasing power to negotiate competitively priced LNG and possible future regional supply from yet-to-be-developed prospects in Namibia and Mozambique.
For instance, the $30-billion planned Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province will comprise a 15.2-million- tonne-a-year natural gas liquefication facility, led by energy company ExxonMobil. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies is advancing a major gas discovery in the Venus field in Namibia’s Orange basin.
There are also plans for a floating storage unit for LNG and regasification in Walvis Bay.
Moreover, global commodity trader Vitol has invested in a consortium comprising Vivo Energy and Engen South Africa that is developing a $3-billion LNG-to-power project at Durban port, which will feature a combined-cycle gas-turbine plant with a capacity of between 1 000 MW and 1 800 MW.
Under current plans, regasified LNG will be transported through the 600 km Lilly pipeline, which runs from Durban to Secunda, while offering LNG bunkering for ships.
Industry View
During a webinar hosted by Creamer Media on March 25, experts unpacked the potential of gas as a solution for energy security in the country, as well as challenges to implementing projects.
Human pointed out that, although gas is increasingly positioned as a critical enabler of South Africa’s energy transition, supporting both power generation and industrial competitiveness, translating plans into realised projects is proving complex.
Expressing a commonly held view, he said the question is no longer whether South Africa should have gas in its energy mix, but how to move from conception to implementation.
Shaw argued that the country needed to commit to a clear demand profile and provide fiscal support to underpin infrastructure that allows gas to flow. “This needs clear timelines and hard commitment, otherwise industry will go on to find different solutions.”
He also emphasised the need for a coordinated, high-level government approach to the “gas crisis”, similar to the approach taken for electricity through the National Energy Crisis Committee.
Phakwe Group founder and executive chairperson Thabiso Tenyane agreed that there must be an intentional effort to stick to proposed timelines, since many of the initial dates envisioned in the GASIPPPP have long lapsed, and to align commitments across different departments and administrations.
He expressed concern that government may be underestimating the urgency needed to mitigate the immense economic impacts of a potential gas cliff, as well as the costs associated with delays in investing in large-scale plants.
Tenyane pointed out that, in a best-case scenario, preferred GASIPPPP bidders will be announced by July 2027. This would be followed by a 14-month period to reach commercial close and procure long-lead items such as turbines. “If we are lucky, projects can be commissioned in 2032 at the earliest,” he lamented.
This timeline stands in contrast to Eskom’s mid-term system adequacy outlook, which projects a potential “baseload cliff” or baseload shortage by 2030 owing to the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants.
Tenyane added that, amid ongoing delays, the cost of turbines and establishing gas-to-power plants has increased, which means calculated tariffs quickly become uncompetitive the longer government delays.
Standard Bank Southern Africa oil and gas head Paul Eardley-Taylor noted that gas comprises 25% of the global primary energy mix, compared with just 3% in South Africa.
Notably, South Africa is the only country in the Group of Twenty without grid-connected gas. Eardley-Taylor said the time has come to recognise gas as a destination fuel, and not merely as a transition fuel, given the significant role of natural gas in global markets.
Rompco commercial and stakeholder management GM Motlokwe Sebake highlighted the potential to grow the gas sector through regional collaboration in the same way that the Rompco pipeline was established. “Rompco is a good case study for cross-border collaboration. Similar projects can proceed with political will and the right types of experience involved.”
Human concluded that all the solutions are on the table and investors are ready, but proper government effort is lacking to coordinate and accelerate the development of gas import infrastructure and gas-to-power capacity.
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The experts unpacked various imperatives and considerations around gas developments during a webinar hosted by Creamer Media on March 25. 
