Early Warning Systems are Key to Minimizing Natural Disasters

Climate change is already increasing the intensity and variability of natural disasters, including a rise in pests and disease outbreaks. While the damage can be minimized with the right preparation, constant surveillance can be costly and it’s hard to know if the investments are worth it. A new study measures just how valuable early warning systems could be in limiting the damage caused by disasters. The study evaluates one of the earliest and longest-running disaster monitoring systems: monitoring for the desert locust, one of the world’s most destructive agricultural pests.

The study uses three decades of data to quantify the benefits of locust monitoring. The authors first evaluate what happens when monitoring is impeded in some way, such as through armed conflicts that prevent field workers from surveying the land. This was the case during the last locust outbreak in 2019 when the Yemen civil war led to gaps in locust reporting. Reduced monitoring, combined with favorable locust breeding conditions like a lot of rain, leads to more locust swarms, the study finds. The authors use machine learning methods to construct the locust swarm migratory paths that connect conflict and rainfall in the locusts’ breeding areas to the human populations that experience the swarm outbreaks.

“When locust swarms develop, they destroy the crops and pastureland in their path—consuming as much food each day as about 625,000 people,” says study co-author Eyal Frank, an assistant professor at the Harris School of Public Policy. “Swarm outbreaks lead to food shortages, making locusts a severe threat to food security across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.”

With less food, Frank and his co-authors find that children exposed to locust swarms are more likely to experience stunted growth. Children exposed to locust swarms in utero are 18 percent more likely to experience stunted growth, and 21 percent more likely when exposed in the nine months after birth. For those children exposed before birth, their risk of dying before age five increases by 16 percent. This was the case during the Yemen civil war. Around 445,000 additional children saw their growth stunted due to locust monitoring failures, with 83 percent of impacted children living in neighboring countries.

“This example shows how interruptions to an early warning system in one location can quickly spiral into a much bigger regional disaster, and in this case a health crisis,” says study co-author Joséphine Gantois, an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia.

Over the long term, a rise in people with stunted growth impacts productivity—decreasing a country’s GDP by about $25 billion per year, the study finds. In other words, the benefit of maintaining monitoring is $25 billion per year, while the monitoring system costs $37 million to $77 million per year to implement. This means that for every $1 invested, the surveillance returns $160 to $680 from improved childhood nutrition alone. There would be additional agricultural and other benefits.

“Locust outbreaks ravage communities with no regard for borders, and yet they are just one example of the type of disaster we could see more of with climate change,” says study co-author Amir Jina, also an assistant professor at the Harris School. . “These disasters share common needs, like the need for international coordination and preventative funding. This study makes clear that having a strong system in place to monitor locust outbreaks and other potential disasters is well worth the investment.”

More broadly, the study points to the need for more data to better pinpoint where disasters are likely to occur in order to prepare before they strike—by investing in comprehensive monitoring as well as other interventions and adaptation policies. The Climate Impact Lab, which Jina is a part of, is actively doing this pinpointing work with the goal of uncovering not only where adaptation will be most needed but also the benefits to specific investments. The Lab is housed at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).

Early Warning Systems are Key to Minimizing Natural Disasters