By Zitamar News • 17 Mar 2026
The Rwandan government attracted coverage from Reuters and Bloomberg yesterday with its threats to withdraw security forces from Mozambique. The immediate reason for its statements was the fact that European Union (EU) funding for the mission is going to run out in May, and EU officials have given the impression to journalists that they do not plan to renew it. But that is not the whole story, or even half the story. When Rwanda’s foreign minister Olivier Nduhungirehe complained (in the same breath as threatening to withdraw) about Rwandan armed forces being sanctioned and “vilified”, he was really talking about the sanctions imposed on the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and some of its commanders by the government of US president Donald Trump. Those sanctions are in response to the Rwandan military intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and in particular its alleged support for the M23 rebels .
Let’s deal with the main issue first, at least from Mozambique’s point of view. Despite Nduhungirehe insisting in a post on X that “Rwanda WILL withdraw its troops from Mozambique, if sustainable funding is not secured for its counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado”, Rwandan troops are not likely to withdraw from Cabo Delgado, even if EU funding is not renewed, although in fact, the EU may well renew it. So why is the Rwandan government threatening to pull out?
The US sanctions are very upsetting to the Rwandan government, because they are a practical and a political threat to the work of the RDF, which carries out peacekeeping operations all over Africa. Rwanda is a tiny country with relatively large, and very important, armed forces. Under Rwanda’s authoritarian president Paul Kagamé, the RDF has become economically significant, bringing in revenue through United Nations-funded peacekeeping missions. The RDF also acts as an ambassador for Rwanda, helping to build its reputation and profile worldwide, which brings wider economic and political benefits. Being sanctioned by the world’s most powerful country naturally threatens all that. Not only will it make it harder in practical terms for the RDF to carry out missions across the world, but it may also affect its reputation.
The Rwandan government is correct to point out that its security forces are defending US interests in Mozambique. US government funding, all $4.7bn of it, is helping to finance the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project led by TotalEnergies of France in Cabo Delgado province, a project that will be built by a consortium of contractors featuring McDermott of the US. Next door, US oil company ExxonMobil is leading its own LNG project, and plans to make a final investment decision on it in September. The Rwandan threats of withdrawal are aimed not at the Mozambican government (which gets on very well with the Rwandan government) but at the US government and at the oil companies operating in Cabo Delgado, in order for them to put pressure on the Americans, either directly or through their own governments.
But for all that, the US sanctions do not really affect the Rwandan presence, which serves Rwanda’s interests as well as Mozambique’s. Fighting Islamic State-backed insurgents in Cabo Delgado is good for the RDF’s reputation. Pulling out would be bad for it, and would call the reliability of the RDF into question. Which is essentially why it is unlikely to do so.
As for EU funding for the Rwandan mission, that is something President Daniel Chapo is expected to lobby for while he is in Brussels this week, although strictly speaking it is for the Rwandan government to ask for it. EU sources have told Zitamar News that the comments made by EU officials to the media about the end of EU funding were misleading, and have indicated that they would be open to renewing the funding. In financial terms however, the money is not that important: it only pays for flights to move the security forces between Rwanda and Mozambique. In political terms, it is an important status symbol for the Rwandan forces. But even if the funding were not renewed, it remains hard to see that the Rwandan forces would withdraw. They are not just defending Cabo Delgado, but their reputation as Africa’s policeman
