Frelimo names safe unknown
as presidential candidate
After a long and convoluted battle, Frelimo has followed the model of Nyusi a decade ago and chosen a seemingly safe and controllable unknown as their presidential candidate. Daniel Chapo is a 47-year-old lawyer, appointed governor of Inhambane in 2016 and then elected to the post in 2019. He will be the first presidential candidate born after independence.
In the face of bitter infighting President Filipe Nyusi kept tight control of the process, delaying the nomination until last weekend. For the Frelimo elite the battle was not about governing the country, but about protecting the Frelimo oligarchs’ business interests, particularly contracts with government and mining and gas companies. For Nyusi it was ensuring that his successor would not be able to do to him what he did to his predecessor, Armando Guebuza – jailing his son and restricting Guebuza’s business interests.
The presidential candidate is selected by the Frelimo Central Committee (CC), based on a short list drawn up by the ruling Political Commission (CP). A majority of the CC was named by, and is loyal to, Nyusi, who ensured it constantly delayed in drawing up a short list.
Unusually, the several months of delay led to up to 40 names being put into circulation. Some senior party figures even covertly opened offices to promote their candidacy. Five political heavyweights were being promoted to the CC and in the press – former prime ministers Aires Ali and Luisa Diogo, former interior ministers Basilio Monteiro and Jose Pacheco, and former parliament speaker Eduardo Mulembwè. Samora Machel Junior was being promoted by some senior figures. And Agriculture Minister and 2023 campaign leader Celso Correia had initially seen himself as a possible presidential candidate.
The PC met on Thursday 2 May to finally name a short list to give to a CC meeting the next day. The PC debate continued into Friday, delaying the CC meeting. Nyusi won, and the short list was three loyal apparatchiks:
+ Roque Silva Samuel, party general secretary and thus CP member (Supported by Nyusi);
+ Damiao Jose, former party spokesperson and current CP member;
+ Daniel Chapo, a member for the CC but not of the CP.
The CC was not pleased and after some debate Nyusi agreed that list could be sent back demanding more names. Former presidents Joaquim Chissano and Armando Guebuza also pressed for a wider shortlist. The CP added two names from parliament:
+ Esperança Bias, Speaker of Parliament and
+ Francisco Mucanheia, Chair of the Committee on Public Administration and Local Authority, and an energy expert, previously close to Guebuza but now a trusted advisor of Nyusi.
So the longer list remained one of trusted apparatchiks and included none of the experienced party heavyweights. At this point CP member Damiao Jose withdrew, leaving four candidates.
In the first ballot of four people, Chapo won 103 votes, Roque Silva 77, Francisco Mucanheia 46, and speaker Esperanca Bias only 3.
This was seen as a strong vote against Roque Silva, so he dropped out of the race, and resigned as party secretary general and thus from the CP. On the second round on Sunday night, had the backing of Nyusi and won with 225 votes.
Chapo has won some praise as governor of Inhambane, with good leadership and a focus on solving the problems of the population. Zitamar (6 May) quotes Eugenio Arao, a political analyst and university lecturer in Inhambane, to say that in all the years that Chapo has worked in Inhambane, he is not known to have behaved inappropriately. Savana (5 May) comments that Chapo “is apparently not a figure with a strong commitment to any wing within the party” but the bitter meetings over the weekend show he will inherit a deeply divided party. And he will be seen as a younger generation candidate.
(Sources: AIM, Frelimo, Zitamar, Carta de Moçambique, Savana, O Pais)
Opposition choosing candidates
On Sunday 5 May the second opposition party, MDM (Mozambique Democratic Movement), announced that it has selected as presidential candidate Lutero Simango, head of the parliamentary delegation and brother of party founder Daviz Simango (who died of Covid in 2021). The other candidate was Beira mayor Albano Carige, who withdrew.
Renamo has not yet chosen its candidate but will do so at a congress 15-16 May. Afonso Dhlakama led Renamo from 1979 through the war which ended in 1992, until he died of diabetes related conditions on 3 May 2018. Former guerrilla Ossufo Momade was elected president at a congress at Renamo’s Gorongosa base on 17 January 2019 for a five year term, which some say has now been expired. Renamo has two dynamic younger people, Manuel de Araújo, who is mayor of Quelimane, and Venancio Mondlane, who was elected mayor of Maputo last year, but denied the victory by the Constitutional Council. In order to be named presidential candidate next week, he is marginalising Mondlane and Araújo and may block them from attending the Congress.
Lutero Simango and Ossufo Momade are much weaker campaigners that their late predecessors, and they are being challenges by younger and more dynamic local leaders. But it appears that both leaders are happy to remain as official opposition parties. MDM is effectively a family party which wins in and successfully run Beira, and seem happy to stay that way. The younger generation in Renamo want the party to be to be a political opposition to Frelimo today, naot a guerrilla opposition from three decades ago. But Momade seems happy to be leader of the opposition, receiving significant money from the government, with the main goal of organising the retirement of guerrillas.
Neither MDM nor Renamo leaders see their parties as an opposition which can win, whereas younger members say “we were born after the war and want to be an opposition for today that can beat Frelimo”.
Is Frelimo victory inevitable?
A victory for Chapo and Frelimo seems inevitable. In part this is due to the growing level of fraud and misconduct in the electoral system. The National Election Commission is on course to register a million more voters than there are voting age adults for the 9 October election. Renamo provided proof that it won local elections last year in Maputo and Matola, but the Constitutional Council simply gave the victory to Frelimo.
Second, the leadership of the Renamo and MDM opposition are too comfortable being the opposition. They are not motivated to do the serious political organising required the challenge Frelimo nor to allow space for younger and more dynamic leaders. So both Frelimo and opposition are happy to ignore younger voters.
Third the international community strongly backs Frelimo, and will not challenge another fraudulent election. Their capitals want resources and investment opportunities, and do not argue if benefits from the projects go to Frelimo oligarchs instead of local people.
https://bit.ly/Moz-634
