Mozambique’s poverty rate is increasing and is “one of the highest in the world” says the World Bank in its Mozambique Country Partnership Framework (CPF, 23 Feb). There was a “marked increase in the national poverty rate” from 48% in 2015 to 63% in 2020. The World Bank estimates that “over 3 million people slipped into extreme poverty in 2020”, meaning “18.9 million people living in poverty according to national standards in 2020.”
Poverty data is slow to be released and the World Bank was comparing the Household Budget Surveys (IOF, Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar) of 2014/15 and 2019/20. The national poverty rate is based on MT40 per person per day. The international poverty line is $2.15 per person per day at purchasing power parity (ppp), and shows an increase from 64% in 2015 to 74% in 2020.
Multi-dimensional poverty, including depravations and lack of access to water and other services, had been falling, but increased from 71% in 2015 to 78% in 2020. “In rural areas, conditions reverted to nearly 2002/03 levels, with over 95% of households falling into multidimensional poverty.” Urban multi-dimensional poverty increased from 32% in 2015 to 46% in 2020.
Most people living below the national poverty line (MT40 per person per day) are in the north. The poorest provinces are Nampula (81% below the national poverty line), Cabo Delgado (77%). and Zambezia (75%), Cabo Delgado has become much poorer, with the second largest share of poor in the total population, compared to third in 2015.
“Mozambique’s institutions still need to improve effectiveness, pro-poor orientation, and public trust,” the CPF notes, pointing to “weakness of institutions that are not inclusive and that struggle to mediate and manage relations between the state and its citizens. They are also expressed in both the perception and the reality of deep-seated inequalities between regions and groups, with a sense among some groups of exclusion from power, resources, services, and opportunities.” But government refused to accept this view on Cabo Delgado, and the Bank and EU failed to win local involvement in its programme for Cabo Delgado. CPF admits that the Bank supports the PREDIN programme which “ensures that the Government is guiding the overall response to the conflict and that all interventions in the north of Mozambique are coordinated and aligned under its lead.” In other words, controlled from Maputo.
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